IPO baselines
11 companies
23 published company currently lacks an IPO baseline.
Insights
Visual arguments for the slowly free future
The registry is useful when you want details. These pages are useful when you want the thesis to hit in one screen. Everything here is directional, auditable, and deliberately explicit about being a model rather than an oracle.
Capital at risk
$3.2T
Illustrative capital release across the current published sample.
Alternatives tracked
79
49 products already have documented substitute pressure.
Average IPO CAGR
34.2%
Calculated across the companies that already have IPO-derived metrics.
Page 1IPO vs now vs residual
Post-bubble
Compare IPO market caps, today's market caps, and a thesis-adjusted residual cap that subtracts the share of value most exposed to open, automated, and decentralized competition.
Biggest published cap in the set
NVIDIA
$4.3T current · $4.1T residual
Page 2Moat vs decentralizability
Capital release atlas
Plot the sample on a moat-versus-decentralizability map, size the bubbles by market cap, and rank the largest implied capital releases.
Largest current exposure
Microsoft
$523.2B exposed · 16% of current cap
Page 3Replacement landscape
Alternative pressure index
Rank products and companies by how viable the documented alternatives already look, with special attention to readiness and cost leverage instead of pure ideological niceness.
Highest documented company pressure
Mastercard
8.4/10 pressure score · 3 documented alternatives
Page 4Original attack vectors
Disruption concept index
Rank the registry's original product ideas by how buildable, incentive-coherent, and strategically painful they look for incumbents.
Highest-scoring concept stack
Meta Platforms
7.5/10 concept score · 4 documented concepts
Why this section exists
The registry is where the evidence lives. The insights section is where the site admits what story it thinks the evidence is already telling. That means visual pages, explicit caveats, and enough structure that readers can disagree without pretending there is no argument here at all.