Current cap in sample
$28.5T
Published companies with enough metric coverage to map cleanly.
Insights · Capital release atlas
Where the largest repricing arguments live
The atlas plots moat against decentralizability, sizes each bubble by current market cap, and highlights where the current published sample appears most exposed to open, local, and protocol-native substitution.
Capital at risk
$3.2T
Directional freed-capital estimate across the current published sample.
Average at-risk share
9.3%
Mean challenged share of current market cap across the plotted companies.
Largest exposure
Microsoft
$523.2B challenged
Quadrant map
Moat on the vertical, decentralizability on the horizontal
Upper-right is the danger zone for a consensus that still assumes the moat is immortal. Bubble size tracks current market cap rather than thesis intensity.
On phones, the key reading is the ranked exposure list below. The desktop quadrant chart returns on larger screens where the bubble map can breathe.
Microsoft
Enterprise software and cloud infrastructure giant spanning productivity, developer platforms, and operating systems.
At risk
$523.2B
Moat9.1/10
Decentralizability6.4/10
Current cap
$3.3T
Share challenged
15.9%
Meta Platforms
Ad-supported social and messaging empire anchored by Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
At risk
$446B
Moat7.9/10
Decentralizability7.4/10
Current cap
$1.8T
Share challenged
24.8%
Alphabet
Search, ads, video, mobile, and cloud giant still centered economically on attention capture.
At risk
$444.3B
Moat8.7/10
Decentralizability6.8/10
Current cap
$2.4T
Share challenged
18.5%
Amazon
Retail, logistics, advertising, and cloud juggernaut with scale in both atoms and bits.
At risk
$301.3B
Moat8.9/10
Decentralizability5.7/10
Current cap
$2.2T
Share challenged
13.7%
Apple
A vertically integrated device and services empire built around the iPhone.
At risk
$234.3B
Moat9.3/10
Decentralizability2.8/10
Current cap
$3.7T
Share challenged
6.3%
NVIDIA
GPU kingmaker for AI training, inference, gaming, and high-performance compute.
At risk
$222.5B
Moat9.6/10
Decentralizability2.5/10
Current cap
$4.3T
Share challenged
5.2%
Tesla
EV, charging, energy storage, and autonomy company that sells both products and future narratives.
At risk
$190B
Moat7.4/10
Decentralizability5.9/10
Current cap
$1T
Share challenged
19.0%
Broadcom
Semiconductor and infrastructure software consolidator with critical exposure to networking and virtualization.
At risk
$117.8B
Moat8.6/10
Decentralizability3.8/10
Current cap
$1.1T
Share challenged
10.7%
Walmart
Scale retail and grocery giant whose moat lives in sourcing, logistics, and physical footprint.
At risk
$97B
Moat8.2/10
Decentralizability4.4/10
Current cap
$800B
Share challenged
12.1%
JPMorgan Chase
Diversified financial-services company spanning consumer banking, payments, markets, and asset management.
At risk
$67.1B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability4.0/10
Current cap
$670.6B
Share challenged
10.0%
Cisco Systems
Networking and security company selling enterprise networking, collaboration, observability, and infrastructure software.
At risk
$48.9B
Moat8.0/10
Decentralizability5.0/10
Current cap
$308.6B
Share challenged
15.8%
Visa
Global payments-network operator connecting issuers, acquirers, merchants, consumers, businesses, and governments through VisaNet and related value-added services.
At risk
$46.9B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$595.7B
Share challenged
7.9%
Netflix
Global subscription video service combining streaming, original programming, recommendations, live programming, games, and a lower-priced ad-supported plan.
At risk
$46.5B
Moat8.7/10
Decentralizability4.2/10
Current cap
$402.5B
Share challenged
11.6%
Berkshire Hathaway
Conglomerate spanning insurance, rail, utilities, manufacturing, and a massive equity portfolio.
At risk
$43.5B
Moat8.8/10
Decentralizability1.9/10
Current cap
$900B
Share challenged
4.8%
Costco
Membership warehouse retailer combining limited-SKU bulk merchandising, private-label products, and high-volume operational discipline.
At risk
$41.8B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability4.0/10
Current cap
$440.2B
Share challenged
9.5%
Johnson & Johnson
Diversified health-care company focused on Innovative Medicine and MedTech after the Kenvue consumer-health separation.
At risk
$41.7B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$585.6B
Share challenged
7.1%
Eli Lilly
Pharmaceutical company centered on diabetes, obesity, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience therapies.
At risk
$40.4B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability2.0/10
Current cap
$808.2B
Share challenged
5.0%
Chevron
Integrated energy company spanning crude oil and natural gas production, LNG, refining, chemicals, and global fuel brands.
At risk
$34.5B
Moat8.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$383.5B
Share challenged
9.0%
Procter & Gamble
Consumer packaged-goods company spanning fabric care, baby care, grooming, oral care, and household brands.
At risk
$34B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability4.0/10
Current cap
$358.3B
Share challenged
9.5%
Oracle
Enterprise software and cloud infrastructure incumbent centered on databases, back-office applications, and large-account infrastructure contracts.
At risk
$33.4B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$468.8B
Share challenged
7.1%
Advanced Micro Devices
Semiconductor company designing CPUs, GPUs, accelerators, adaptive SoCs, and related computing platforms for data center, client, gaming, and embedded markets.
At risk
$30.1B
Moat8.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$334B
Share challenged
9.0%
Palantir Technologies
Data integration, analytics, and AI software company serving governments and large enterprises.
At risk
$27.8B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$370.2B
Share challenged
7.5%
Merck & Co.
Research-intensive pharmaceutical company focused on oncology, vaccines, animal health, and specialty medicines.
At risk
$27.3B
Moat8.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$287.3B
Share challenged
9.5%
AbbVie
AbbVie is a U.S. biopharmaceutical company whose growth engine now centers on immunology, oncology, neuroscience, aesthetics, and specialty therapies.
At risk
$25.5B
Moat8.0/10
Decentralizability2.0/10
Current cap
$402.6B
Share challenged
6.3%
GE Aerospace
A U.S. aerospace manufacturer focused on commercial and defense aircraft engines, propulsion systems, and high-value aftermarket services.
At risk
$14.6B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability2.0/10
Current cap
$306.6B
Share challenged
4.8%
RTX
RTX is a large U.S. aerospace and defense company spanning Pratt & Whitney aircraft engines, Collins Aerospace systems, and Raytheon defense platforms.
At risk
$12.5B
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability2.0/10
Current cap
$278.2B
Share challenged
4.5%
Exxon Mobil
Integrated energy company spanning upstream oil and gas production, refining, chemicals, lubricants, and branded fuel distribution.
At risk
$60
Moat8.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$632
Share challenged
9.5%
Mastercard
Global payments network operator selling card-rail transaction processing alongside security, identity, data, and other value-added services.
At risk
$50
Moat8.9/10
Decentralizability4.2/10
Current cap
$450
Share challenged
11.0%
Bank of America
One of the world's largest financial institutions offering consumer banking, wealth management through Merrill, and global banking and markets services.
At risk
$29
Moat8.0/10
Decentralizability3.0/10
Current cap
$320
Share challenged
9.0%
Micron Technology
Micron Technology is a U.S. semiconductor manufacturer focused on DRAM, NAND, NOR, high-bandwidth memory, and storage products for data centers, AI systems, mobile devices, and embedded markets.
At risk
$22
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability2.0/10
Current cap
$471
Share challenged
4.8%
Coca-Cola
Global beverage company spanning sparkling soft drinks, water, juice, coffee, tea, and sports drinks.
At risk
$12
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability2.0/10
Current cap
$260
Share challenged
4.8%
Caterpillar
World's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines, supported by Cat Financial's global equipment financing.
At risk
$8
Moat8.5/10
Decentralizability2.0/10
Current cap
$150
Share challenged
5.5%
Philip Morris International
Global tobacco and nicotine company centered on cigarettes, heated-tobacco systems, nicotine pouches, and other smoke-free products.
At risk
$8
Moat8.8/10
Decentralizability1.2/10
Current cap
$255
Share challenged
3.2%
Applied Materials
Applied Materials is the world's largest supplier of semiconductor and display manufacturing equipment, enabling chipmakers globally to fabricate integrated circuits and flat-panel displays.
At risk
$3
Moat9.0/10
Decentralizability1.0/10
Current cap
$140
Share challenged
2.4%
Bubble position = moat and decentralizability
Bubble size = current market cap
Quick reads
A few obvious takeaways
Sometimes the point of a chart is not nuance. It is to force the right comparison.
Largest current exposure
Microsoft
$523.2B challenged, or 15.9% of current cap.
Most decentralizable giant
Meta Platforms
7.4/10 decentralizability with a 7.9/10 moat.
Deepest moat in sample
NVIDIA
9.6/10 moat with $4.3T in current equity value.
Ranked exposures
Who matters most if the rents compress?
This list ranks the currently published companies by the model's freed-capital estimate, then keeps the underlying moat and decentralizability scores visible beside it.
Microsoft
Enterprise software and cloud infrastructure giant spanning productivity, developer platforms, and operating systems.
At risk
$523.2B
Moat
9.1/10
Decentral.
6.4/10
Share challenged
15.9%
Meta Platforms
Ad-supported social and messaging empire anchored by Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
At risk
$446B
Moat
7.9/10
Decentral.
7.4/10
Share challenged
24.8%
Alphabet
Search, ads, video, mobile, and cloud giant still centered economically on attention capture.
At risk
$444.3B
Moat
8.7/10
Decentral.
6.8/10
Share challenged
18.5%
Amazon
Retail, logistics, advertising, and cloud juggernaut with scale in both atoms and bits.
At risk
$301.3B
Moat
8.9/10
Decentral.
5.7/10
Share challenged
13.7%
Apple
A vertically integrated device and services empire built around the iPhone.
At risk
$234.3B
Moat
9.3/10
Decentral.
2.8/10
Share challenged
6.3%
NVIDIA
GPU kingmaker for AI training, inference, gaming, and high-performance compute.
At risk
$222.5B
Moat
9.6/10
Decentral.
2.5/10
Share challenged
5.2%
Tesla
EV, charging, energy storage, and autonomy company that sells both products and future narratives.
At risk
$190B
Moat
7.4/10
Decentral.
5.9/10
Share challenged
19.0%
Broadcom
Semiconductor and infrastructure software consolidator with critical exposure to networking and virtualization.
At risk
$117.8B
Moat
8.6/10
Decentral.
3.8/10
Share challenged
10.7%
Walmart
Scale retail and grocery giant whose moat lives in sourcing, logistics, and physical footprint.
At risk
$97B
Moat
8.2/10
Decentral.
4.4/10
Share challenged
12.1%
JPMorgan Chase
Diversified financial-services company spanning consumer banking, payments, markets, and asset management.
At risk
$67.1B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
4.0/10
Share challenged
10.0%
Cisco Systems
Networking and security company selling enterprise networking, collaboration, observability, and infrastructure software.
At risk
$48.9B
Moat
8.0/10
Decentral.
5.0/10
Share challenged
15.8%
Visa
Global payments-network operator connecting issuers, acquirers, merchants, consumers, businesses, and governments through VisaNet and related value-added services.
At risk
$46.9B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
7.9%
Netflix
Global subscription video service combining streaming, original programming, recommendations, live programming, games, and a lower-priced ad-supported plan.
At risk
$46.5B
Moat
8.7/10
Decentral.
4.2/10
Share challenged
11.6%
Berkshire Hathaway
Conglomerate spanning insurance, rail, utilities, manufacturing, and a massive equity portfolio.
At risk
$43.5B
Moat
8.8/10
Decentral.
1.9/10
Share challenged
4.8%
Costco
Membership warehouse retailer combining limited-SKU bulk merchandising, private-label products, and high-volume operational discipline.
At risk
$41.8B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
4.0/10
Share challenged
9.5%
Johnson & Johnson
Diversified health-care company focused on Innovative Medicine and MedTech after the Kenvue consumer-health separation.
At risk
$41.7B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
7.1%
Eli Lilly
Pharmaceutical company centered on diabetes, obesity, oncology, immunology, and neuroscience therapies.
At risk
$40.4B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
2.0/10
Share challenged
5.0%
Chevron
Integrated energy company spanning crude oil and natural gas production, LNG, refining, chemicals, and global fuel brands.
At risk
$34.5B
Moat
8.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
9.0%
Procter & Gamble
Consumer packaged-goods company spanning fabric care, baby care, grooming, oral care, and household brands.
At risk
$34B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
4.0/10
Share challenged
9.5%
Oracle
Enterprise software and cloud infrastructure incumbent centered on databases, back-office applications, and large-account infrastructure contracts.
At risk
$33.4B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
7.1%
Advanced Micro Devices
Semiconductor company designing CPUs, GPUs, accelerators, adaptive SoCs, and related computing platforms for data center, client, gaming, and embedded markets.
At risk
$30.1B
Moat
8.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
9.0%
Palantir Technologies
Data integration, analytics, and AI software company serving governments and large enterprises.
At risk
$27.8B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
7.5%
Merck & Co.
Research-intensive pharmaceutical company focused on oncology, vaccines, animal health, and specialty medicines.
At risk
$27.3B
Moat
8.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
9.5%
AbbVie
AbbVie is a U.S. biopharmaceutical company whose growth engine now centers on immunology, oncology, neuroscience, aesthetics, and specialty therapies.
At risk
$25.5B
Moat
8.0/10
Decentral.
2.0/10
Share challenged
6.3%
GE Aerospace
A U.S. aerospace manufacturer focused on commercial and defense aircraft engines, propulsion systems, and high-value aftermarket services.
At risk
$14.6B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
2.0/10
Share challenged
4.8%
RTX
RTX is a large U.S. aerospace and defense company spanning Pratt & Whitney aircraft engines, Collins Aerospace systems, and Raytheon defense platforms.
At risk
$12.5B
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
2.0/10
Share challenged
4.5%
Exxon Mobil
Integrated energy company spanning upstream oil and gas production, refining, chemicals, lubricants, and branded fuel distribution.
At risk
$60
Moat
8.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
9.5%
Mastercard
Global payments network operator selling card-rail transaction processing alongside security, identity, data, and other value-added services.
At risk
$50
Moat
8.9/10
Decentral.
4.2/10
Share challenged
11.0%
Bank of America
One of the world's largest financial institutions offering consumer banking, wealth management through Merrill, and global banking and markets services.
At risk
$29
Moat
8.0/10
Decentral.
3.0/10
Share challenged
9.0%
Micron Technology
Micron Technology is a U.S. semiconductor manufacturer focused on DRAM, NAND, NOR, high-bandwidth memory, and storage products for data centers, AI systems, mobile devices, and embedded markets.
At risk
$22
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
2.0/10
Share challenged
4.8%
Coca-Cola
Global beverage company spanning sparkling soft drinks, water, juice, coffee, tea, and sports drinks.
At risk
$12
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
2.0/10
Share challenged
4.8%
Caterpillar
World's leading manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines, supported by Cat Financial's global equipment financing.
At risk
$8
Moat
8.5/10
Decentral.
2.0/10
Share challenged
5.5%
Philip Morris International
Global tobacco and nicotine company centered on cigarettes, heated-tobacco systems, nicotine pouches, and other smoke-free products.
At risk
$8
Moat
8.8/10
Decentral.
1.2/10
Share challenged
3.2%
Applied Materials
Applied Materials is the world's largest supplier of semiconductor and display manufacturing equipment, enabling chipmakers globally to fabricate integrated circuits and flat-panel displays.
At risk
$3
Moat
9.0/10
Decentral.
1.0/10
Share challenged
2.4%